Digest Number 109

[a***@public.gmane.org]

In games development, the marketing campaign precedes completion of the game
--- once they launch into the marketing campaign, they care more about
predictability than features. Better conservative and on time than a giant
marketing blitz followed by a product delay.

In a message dated 4/1/2005 3:19:12 P.M. Mountain Standard Time,
xpbookdiscussiongroup-***@public.gmane.org writes:

Does someone have an example of where a customer might weigh
predictability that highly? It doesn't have to come from
software. An example from any domain might help to frame the
conversation.

Dale





==============================================
Alistair Cockburn
President, Humans and Technology

801.582.3162
1814 Ft Douglas Cir,
Salt Lake City, UT 84103
_http://alistair.cockburn.us/_ (http://alistair.cockburn.us/)
acockburn-***@public.gmane.org
(fax: [phone])
===============================

"Surviving Object-Oriented Projects" (1998)
"Writing Effective Use Cases" (Jolt Productivity Award 2001)
"Agile Software Development" (Jolt Productivity Award 2002)
"Crystal Clear: A Human-Powered Methodology for Small Teams" (Jolt Award
Finalist 2004)

"La perfection est atteinte non quand il ne reste rien a ajouter,
mais quand il ne reste rien a enlever." (Saint-Exupery)

"The first thing to build is trust." (Brad Appleton)
==============================================

[Dale Emery]

Hi Alistair,

Post by a***@public.gmane.org
In games development, the marketing campaign precedes
completion of the game --- once they launch into the
marketing campaign, they care more about predictability than
features. Better conservative and on time than a giant
marketing blitz followed by a product delay.

Your example, and those from a few other people, help me to see a
factor that may be relevant: They all require predictability at
the release level.

The examples in the back of my mind (that I couldn't think of
yesterday) all had that quality, too:
- Software to score the slalom event for the Olympics.
- Tax software.
- CBS's "big board" for the 2008 presidential election.

How does the need for release-level predictability relate to
needing predictability at the iteration level? I can see a
relationship, but I can't articulate it yet.

Dale

[Jim Shore]

Post by Dale Emery
How does the need for release-level predictability relate to
needing predictability at the iteration level? I can see a
relationship, but I can't articulate it yet.

How do you gauge release-level predictability in advance?

Jim

[aacockburn]

My best first guess: If the team is on track or off track by a
predictable amount each iteration, then the corresponding maps to the
release. Does this make any sense? I haven't tried it or seen it,
hence it's my best first guess.

Alistair

Post by Dale Emery
How does the need for release-level predictability relate to
needing predictability at the iteration level? I can see a
relationship, but I can't articulate it yet.

[Jeff Grigg]

--- Hi Alistair,

Post by a***@public.gmane.org
In games development, the marketing campaign precedes
completion of the game --- once they launch into the
marketing campaign, they care more about predictability than
features. Better conservative and on time than a giant
marketing blitz followed by a product delay.

It has to be ready by Christmas. If the game isn't on the shelves
by the Christmas rush (before Thanksgiving, typically), you lose a
year's sales. And this year's game often won't sell in next year's
market.

Your example, and those from a few other people, help me to see a
factor that may be relevant: They all require predictability at
the release level.
The examples in the back of my mind (that I couldn't think of
- Software to score the slalom event for the Olympics.
- Tax software.
- CBS's "big board" for the 2008 presidential election.

My father worked with equipment delivered to Alaska. Some major
ports, such as Prudhoe Bay, thaw once a year. If you miss the
shipping window, you'll be delayed until the next year.

How does the need for release-level predictability relate to
needing predictability at the iteration level? I can see a
relationship, but I can't articulate it yet.

An iterative approach ensures that you can always ship now. (Or
really, at the end of any iteration.) The system may not have all
the bells-and-whistles features you might wish for, but if all
iterative releases are production quality, and they occur frequently
enough, then you can "ship" at any time. Then it becomes a
marketing issue: Do we chose to sell the product we have, or do we
make a business decision to invest and wait -- to produce a more
full-featured product, later?

As for predictability...
What are the odds that the planned release, a year from now, will
happen on time, if what we delivered in the last month fell below
our planned levels? "Try harder!!!" is an easy answer, but not
often successful at resolving the real problems. There's something
to be said for believing that a year from now we'll have twelve
times as much done as what we accomplished in the last month. We
can hope for more. We can wish for more. We may have some really
good ideas on how we could possibly accomplish more. But until some
of those ideas actually demonstrate some success, I'd bet on the
idea that we'll get about as much work done in the next month as we
did in the last month. That prediction has proven true /far/ more
often than the more optimistic ideas. ;->

And when we start getting *more* done than planned... That's a
happy business opportunity! ;->

[Amir Kolsky]

Have you actually seen a Major Game come in less than a year later than it's
announcement said it would?

Amir Kolsky
XP& Software



_____

From: acockburn-***@public.gmane.org [mailto:acockburn-***@public.gmane.org]
Sent: Saturday, April 02, 2005 2:59 AM
To: xpbookdiscussiongroup-***@public.gmane.org
Subject: Re: [xpe2e] Digest Number 109



In games development, the marketing campaign precedes completion of the game
--- once they launch into the marketing campaign, they care more about
predictability than features. Better conservative and on time than a giant
marketing blitz followed by a product delay.

In a message dated 4/1/2005 3:19:12 P.M. Mountain Standard Time,
xpbookdiscussiongroup-***@public.gmane.org writes:

Does someone have an example of where a customer might weigh
predictability that highly? It doesn't have to come from
software. An example from any domain might help to frame the
conversation.

Dale



==============================================
Alistair Cockburn
President, Humans and Technology

801.582.3162
1814 Ft Douglas Cir,
Salt Lake City, UT 84103
http://alistair.cockburn.us/
acockburn-***@public.gmane.org
(fax: [phone])
===============================

"Surviving Object-Oriented Projects" (1998)
"Writing Effective Use Cases" (Jolt Productivity Award 2001)
"Agile Software Development" (Jolt Productivity Award 2002)
"Crystal Clear: A Human-Powered Methodology for Small Teams" (Jolt Award
Finalist 2004)

"La perfection est atteinte non quand il ne reste rien a ajouter,
mais quand il ne reste rien a enlever." (Saint-Exupery)

"The first thing to build is trust." (Brad Appleton)
==============================================




_____

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